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Aug
11
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 14W (Banyan) is located about 66 NM south of Wake Island

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards,Tropical Cyclone segments, positions for Tropical Cyclone 14W

Tropical Cyclone 14W (Banyan) is on a gradual strengthening trend…and has reached tropical storm strength

Here’s a satellite image of this system…along with what the computer models are showing

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports that satellite imagery shows convective cloud banding wrapping into a central convective mass over the low level circulation center.

Environmental analysis shows that the system is developing an equatorward outflow channel, and is located in an area of low 5-10 knots of wind shear…and is moving through an area of warm sea surface temperatures.

TS 14W is expected to initially track north-northwest over the next 36 hours, after which 14W will recurve and shift north-northeast. Limited intensification will occur over the next 36 hours, with max winds reaching 45 knots, Thereafter, increasing wind shear will begin to weaken the storm.

After 72 hours, TS 14W will continue to track towards the northeast, and then TS Banyan will gradually weaken.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #3 were 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 3-hour precipitation accumulations…with two tropical disturbances that have a high chance of developing

1.) According to the NHC, a large area of low pressure is located about 260 miles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico

This area is being referred to as Invest 92E, here’s a satellite image this system…along with what the computer models are showing

The surface circulation is gradually becoming better defined, and this system could become a tropical depression or tropical storm at any time during the next day or so.

The low is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, away from the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

2.) Disorganized cloudiness and showers centered a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with a surface trough.

Environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly conducive for development, and a tropical cyclone is likely to form early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

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