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Jun
19
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 24-hour precipitation accumulation

However, a Potential Tropical Cyclone has a high chance of forming in the tropical Atlantic Ocean near Venezuela…within the next 2-5 days

This area of disturbed weather is being referred to as 02L, here’s a satellite image…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the National Hurricane Center, the convective pattern of the disturbance has become better organized, with a ragged cloud band that wraps more than half way around its center. Model guidance is in good agreement that the environmental conditions may allow for some slight intensification in the next day or so, with the system embedded within low shear, and an atmosphere that is marginally moist and unstable.

Beginning in about 36 hours however, the shear should go up to moderate levels, because of an approaching upper trough of low pressure. Because of this increasing shear, all guidance shows the system dissipating before 72 hours. An alternative scenario – given that the disturbance has tracked left, or equatorward, of the guidance thus far…is that it could remain south of guidance and dissipate over Venezuela and never reach the Caribbean Sea.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate the system later today to help in this determination. It is still anticipated that the system will become a tropical storm, but it may be running out of time if it interacts significantly with Venezuela.

The system is moving toward the west at a very rapid 22 knots, due to the fast trade winds south of a strong Bermuda high. It is likely that a rapid motion toward the west or west-northwest will continue until dissipation.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

 

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 24-hour precipitation accumulation

Meanwhile, a broad area of disturbed weather over the Gulf of Mexico, being referred to as Invest 93L, has the potential to become a tropical system…while causing areas of heavy rain this week. The system could become a tropical depression or storm over the next few days.

As the system gradually moves away from Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, the chances of developing increase.

The system may form over the central Gulf of Mexico, and then migrate northward to the central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana. Another scenario takes the system on a more westward track toward the coasts of northeastern Mexico, Texas or western Louisiana.

In the meantime, heavy rains will continue to fall on parts of the Caribbean and the Yucatan Peninsula…which continues the risk of flash flooding and mudslides. Rip currents, high surf and some coastal flooding are also possible. Here’s a graphical map showing the potential rainfall along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico

According to the NHC: a broad area of low pressure extends from north of the Yucatan Peninsula across adjacent portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico. This system is producing a large area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity well east and northeast of the low…over much of the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

While this system does not have a well-defined surface circulation, satellite wind data indicate that tropical storm force winds are occurring in a band 100 to 150 miles northeast of the broad low.

Upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive for some additional development of this system during the next day or two, while it moves northward to northwestward into the central Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form during that time. Regardless of development, interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system, as a tropical storm watch or warning could be needed for portions of this area later today.

Also, heavy rains are expected to continue over portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba, the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula, and spread into central and eastern portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast during the next day or two. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high 80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

This NHC graphic shows where this may occur…along with the tropical disturbance located near the Venezuela coast


Atlantic Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, located several hundred miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no current tropical cyclones

A broad area of low pressure extends from north of the Yucatan Peninsula across adjacent portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico. This system is producing a large area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity well east and northeast of the low over much of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. While this system does not have a well-defined surface circulation, satellite wind data indicate that tropical-storm-force winds are occurring in a band 100 to 150 miles northeast of the broad low. Upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive for some additional development of this system during the next day or two while it moves northward to northwestward into the central Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form during that time. Regardless of development, interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system, as a tropical storm watch or warning could be needed for portions of this area later today.

Also, heavy rains are expected to continue over portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba, the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula, and spread into central and eastern portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast during the next day or two. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

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