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Jan
18
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 06S (Berguitta) is located about 117 NM south-southwest of St. Denis

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and error cone for TC 06S (Berguitta)

Tropical Cyclone 06S (Berguitta) remains active, bringing stormy weather to both Mauritius and La Reunion Islands…in the South Indian Ocean

  • Tropical Cyclone Berguitta moved along the southeastern coast of Mauritius Wednesday night
  • The storm will head generally for La Reunion Island
  • Berguitta will maintain its strength after having struck Mauritius Island…as the equivalent of a category 1 hurricane
  • Mauritius suffered damage as the island was hit by strong winds
  • The center of TC Berguitta is forecast to miss La Reunion Island by only 98 miles…as it moves by to the east and then south

Here’s a satellite image of this TC, along with what the computer models are showing

Here’s a near real time graphic showing the strong winds wrapping around the storm…to the east of Madagascar.

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows extensive convective banding wrapping into a centrally located convective mass.

The storm has maintained its intensity of 60 knots over the past 6-hours, and even improving in convective structure slightly…as it moves away from Mauritius.

TC Berguitta is tracking southwestward, after 48 hours it will take a turn towards the southeast. Intensity is expected to remain steady over the next 12 hours, as moderate 15-20 northeasterly wind shear is offset by poleward outflow.

The system is expected to begin a gradual weakening trend after 12 hours, as wind shear increases and the storm tracks into an area of cooler sea surface temperatures.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #25 were 60 knots with gusts of 75 knots.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 06S (Berguitta) 

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Jan
17
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 06S (Berguitta) is located about 72 NM east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model for TC 06S (Berguitta)

Tropical Cyclone 06S (Berguitta) remains active…and is forecast to move over or very near both Mauritius and La Reunion Islands in the South Indian Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of this TC, along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows flaring central convection being sheared to the west, with weakening banding features.

Easterly winds aloft have started to impinge upon the eastern outflow of the storm over the past 6-hours, which is increasing wind shear.

Environmental conditions will remain marginal to favorable and sustain the current intensity around 65 knots (typhoon strength)…with minor fluctuations over the next 48 hours.

At some point after 48 hours, the track will shift south and then southeast. Interaction with an approaching trough will increase wind shear, and thus a weakening trend.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #22 were 65 knots with gusts of 80 knots.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 06S (Berguitta) 

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Jan
16
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 06S (Berguitta) is located about 216 NM east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model for TC 06S

Tropical Cyclone 06S (Berguitta) remains active…and is forecast to move directly over Mauritius and La Reunion Islands in the South Indian Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of this TC, along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows dense overcast clouds obscuring the low level circulation center, with spiral banding wrapping into the center.

Upper level analysis shows that the system is being somewhat restricted, due to low to moderately strong wind shear. Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures in the region are warm, and combined with other environmental factors…will maintain TC 06S at an intensity of near 85 knots over the next 72 hours.

TC 06S has tracked west-southwest over the past 6-hours, which should continue through 72 hours, and then shift southeastward by 120 hours.

Shortly after 72 hours the storm tracks below 25 degrees south, as sea surface temperatures drop considerably, and the system begins to weaken.

After 96 hours, the storm will begin interacting with an approaching mid-latitude trough, and fully transition into an extra-tropical system by 120 hours.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #18 were 80 knots with gusts of 100 knots.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations…and a tropical disturbance circled in yellow

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, circled in yellow above, being referred to as Invest 91W…located approximately 275 NM southeast of Palau

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a broad area of troughing, with somewhat disorganized and fragmented convection. Additionally, images depict a large area with mostly shallow convection beginning to curve around the southern periphery of a weak low level circulation center.

The disturbance is currently located in a favorable environment with good divergence aloft, low 5-15 knot wind shear…and very warm sea surface temperatures.

The models are in agreement that the disturbance will move to the west-northwest over the next several days, however, are divided on the timing and degree of intensification.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 06S (Berguitta) 

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Jan
15
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 06S (Berguitta) is located about 285 NM east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius

https://pzal.ndbc.noaa.gov/collab/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg

Tropical Cyclone 06S (Berguitta) remains active…and is forecast to move directly over Mauritius and La Reunion Islands in the South Indian Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of this TC, along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a compact system with persistent deep convection wrapping into a 10 NM wide eye feature.

Environmental analysis shows the storm is in an area with low to moderate 15-20 knot wind shear…and warm sea surface temperatures.

Upper level analysis shows that the system has good equatorward outflow and poleward outflow that’s being enhanced by the mid-latitude westerlies.

TC 06S has been nearly stationary over the past 12 hours, although the system is forecast to track slowly to the west-southwest. Thereafter, the storm will accelerate to the southwest after 36 hours.

The favorable environment has allowed the system to rapidly intensify over the past 12 hours, which will continue through the next 36 hours…eventually reaching a peak of 110 knots.

After 36 hours, the storm will begin to gradually weaken as wind shear increases, and the storm passes over cooler sea surface temperatures.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #14 were 100 knots with gusts of 125 knots.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 06S (Berguitta) 

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Jan
14
2018

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 06S (Berguitta) is located about 362 NM east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS model for TC 06S…and a tropical disturbance circled in yellow

Tropical Cyclone 06S (Berguitta) remains active…and is forecast to move directly over Mauritius and La Reunion Islands in the South Indian Ocean

Here’s a satellite image of this TC, along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows that the system has a band of deep convection wrapping into a small area of centrally located convection.

Environmental analysis shows favorable conditions for further development, with low 5-10 knot wind shear…and warm sea surface temperatures.

TC 06S has been nearly stationary due to a weak steering environment, although the system is forecast to track slowly to the west-northwest over the next 36 hours. Thereafter, the storm will accelerate to the southwest. and is forecast to steadily intensify through 72 hours.

TC Berguitta will begin weakening after 72 hours, as the environment becomes less favorable, with increasing wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #10 were 65 knots with gusts of 80 knots.

>>> Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance, circled in yellow above, being referred to as Invest 99S…located approximately 364 NM northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows a consolidating mid-level circulation, with improving convective banding.

Upper level analysis indicates light to moderate 10-15 knot wind shear, with fair equatorward outflow…which is conducive for potential further development.

Sea surface temperatures in the Mozambique Channel are also supportive for development.

The models generally track a weak circulation westward into the African continent.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10-15 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying 3-hour precipitation accumulations

Finally, there’s a second tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 90W…located approximately 266 NM east of Singapore, Malaysia

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the JTWC, satellite imagery shows flaring convection with some mid-level turning. The system appears to be dissipating, and models have continued to move it slowly north.

The disturbance is currently located in a slightly favorable environment with low 10-15 knot wind shear…and has good divergence aloft and warm sea surface temperatures to work with.

The models remain mixed as to how the system will track, although indicate that the most likely scenario will keep it in the vicinity of the Malaysia Peninsula…drifting slowly westward.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15-20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 06S (Berguitta) 

JTWC textual forecast warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

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