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Jun
26
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 04E (Dora) is active in the eastern Pacific…located about 175 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations, and Tropical Cyclone segments, wind radii, positions for Tropical Cyclone 04E (Dora)

Tropical Cyclone 04E (Dora) has become the season’s first hurricane…with a bit more strengthening expected

Dora strengthened from a tropical depression Saturday night to a hurricane Monday morning.

Dora is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph, and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Dora will remain offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico today…and pass well to the south of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday.

Here’s a NASA satellite image, the latest NOAA satellite image of this system…along with what the computer models are showing

Looping satellite image of this tropical cyclone

Here’s a near time wind profile of Hurricane Dora

Here’s a looping graphic showing the sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific

The current projected NHC forecast track would have Dora remaining in the eastern Pacific…with no threat to the Hawaiian Islands expected

The NHC Advisory #7 showed that Hurricane Dora had sustained 75 knot winds…with 90 mph gusts – Category 1

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles.

According to the National Hurricane Center  (NHC), Dora has continued to rapidly intensify with a 20-nm diameter, cloud-filled eye now evident in visible satellite imagery. The upper-level outflow pattern remains quite impressive and continues to expand in all quadrants.

Dora could be a little stronger, but recent infrared imagery indicates that the inner-core convection has eroded significantly, so the initial intensity will remain on the low end of estimates for this advisory.

Dora has been holding on a steady west-northwestward course for the past 12 hours. A strong deep-layer subtropical ridge entrenched to the north of the hurricane, is expected to keep Dora moving in a general west-northwestward motion for the next 3 days or so.

By 72 hours, the cyclone is expected to weaken significantly and become a more vertically shallow system, steered westward by the low-level trade wind flow until Dora dissipates by day 5.

Dora has about another 12 hours or so to strengthen. However, the rapid intensification event that the hurricane has undergone for the past 30 hours has likely ended. The aforementioned erosion of the inner-core convection is possibly due to the entrainment of cooler and more stable air into the western semicircle, now that Dora is beginning to encroach upon cooler sea surface temperatures.

The wind shear is expected to remain low at less than 5 knots, and the favorable upper-level outflow pattern is forecast to persist for the next few days as well. The only hindering factor will be the  hurricane moving over the cooler waters within 12-18 hours.

Steady weakening should begin by 24 hours, but the rate of the weakening trend should be lessened due to proximity to warmer water just south of the path of Dora. Although the center of Dora is forecast to remain well offshore, the outer bands of the cyclone could bring brief locally heavy rainfall to portions of coastal southwestern Mexico into this evening.

Locally heavy rainfall will focus on the areas from Manzanillo to Tomatlan…where localized flooding and mudslides will be possible into early Tuesday.

Dora is expected to remain far enough offshore for the Mexican coast to miss the heaviest rain and strongest winds.

Rough seas will continue, as Hurricane Dora spins offshore, creating hazards for small craft and swimmers along the coast.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 

RAINFALL: Dora is expected to produce rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches along coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Dora are affecting portions of the coast of southwest Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northwestward and begin affecting portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations

Meanwhile, there’s a tropical disturbance in the western Pacific, which is being referred to as Invest 97W…located approximately 237 NM west-northwest of Andersen AFB, Guam

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show a ragged and poorly defined low level circulation, with a flaring and fragmented central convection sheared eastward of the center.

Upper level analysis reveals the system is in an area of light to moderate wind shear.

Global models do not show any significant development.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 10-15 knots.

Due to the deteriorating upper level conditions, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low

 

Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 04E (Dora) 

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Jun
26
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations

Tropical Cyclone Activity is not expected for the time being, nor are any tropical disturbances under investigation by the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

 

Atlantic Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Jun
23
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 03L (Cindy) is located about 75 miles north-northeast of Memphis, Tennessee – Final Advisory

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations

Tropical Cyclone 03L (Cindy) continues to move further inland…bringing heavy rains as a weakened tropical depression – Final Advisory

Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall between Cameron, Louisiana and Port Arthur, Texas early Thursday morning. Moisture from this weakening system will continue to bring heavy rainfall in the lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley.

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TD 03L

Here’s the latest radar image with warnings for this system…along with an image showing potential rainfall

The NHC Advisory #16 shows that TC 03L had sustained 35 mph

According to the National Hurricane Center  (NHC), UNDER INCREASING WIND SHEAR, THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY HAS BECOME ELONGATED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CINDY REMAINS INTACT, WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 46 MPH REPORTED IN MEMPHIS, TENNESSEE DURING THE PAST HOUR.

HOWEVER…ANIMATION OF SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS RATHER SHALLOW, AS INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES OVER THE SURFACE CENTER.

TO THE SOUTH OF CINDY…THUNDERSTORMS ARE ORGANIZING INTO AN ELONGATED BAND WHICH EXTENDS DOWN INTO LOUISIANA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL THIS AFTERNOON, AS IT CONTINUES TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, AND SHOULD BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL BY EARLY SATURDAY…WHEN A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT MERGES WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS TD WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM THE LOWER AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS, INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT…BEFORE RAPIDLY MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCHES…WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE…ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS…AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THESE REGIONS…SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LIFE THREATENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

Atlantic Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Jun
23
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

 There are no active tropical cyclones at the time of this writing

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations

However,  a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 93E, has a medium to high chance of forming in the eastern Pacific Ocean…within the next 2-5 days

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the National Hurricane Center, shower and thunderstorm activity has begun to show signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression by early next week while it moves slowly west- northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico.

Low pressure is embedded within the monsoon trough south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted in association with this feature.

Latest scatterometer data suggest moderate to fresh winds surround the low. The low will drift west-northwestward south of the coast of southern Mexico the next couple of days. This feature will be one to watch with interest…as there is the potential for tropical cyclone formation.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations

Meanwhile, there’s another tropical disturbance in the western Pacific, which is being referred to as Invest 97W…located approximately 570 NM east-southeast of Guam

Here’s a satellite image of this disturbance…along with what the computer models are showing

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), satellite images show weak and disorganized convection with mid-level rotation. Recent scatterometry data suggests a tropical wave at the surface.

Upper level analysis reveals a poor environment, with moderate to strong 15-25 knot wind shear…and weak outflow.

Global models show the system generally moving to the northwest over the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 10-15 knots.

Due to the poor organization at the surface, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Shower and thunderstorm activity has begun to show signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression by early next week while it moves slowly west- northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico.

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

No tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5-days

Western North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Jun
22
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 03L (Cindy) remains active while moving inland from the Gulf of Mexico…located about 165 miles northwest of Morgan City, Louisiana

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 1-day precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, wind positions, for Tropical Cyclone 03L (Cindy)

Tropical Cyclone 03L (Cindy) is weakening over land, as it continues to move further inland…bringing heavy rains as a weakened tropical depression

Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall between Cameron, Louisiana and Port Arthur, Texas early Thursday morning. Moisture from this weakening system will bring heavy rainfall in the lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley.

Here are some rainfall totals as of 11am  this morning:

  • Alabama: 6.31 inches in Atmore…5.48 inches in Mobile
  • Florida: 8.44 inches in Pensacola…8.25 inches in Navarre
  • Georgia: 7.51 inches near Rocky Plains
  • Louisiana: 4.15 inches in New Orleans…4.12 inches near Houma…2.76 inches in Lake Charles
  • Mississippi: 9.79 inches at the Gulfport-Biloxi Airport…8.5 inches in Wiggins


Here’s the latest NOAA satellite image of this system…and what the computer models are showing

Looping satellite image of this weakening tropical cyclone

Here’s a near real-time wind profile of TD 03L

Here’s the latest radar image with warnings for this system…along with an image showing potential rainfall

The NHC Advisory #12 shows that TC 03L had sustained 30 knot winds…with 40 mph gusts

According to the National Hurricane Center  (NHC), the circulation of Cindy is already well inland and weakening. The initial intensity has been lowered to 30 knots, although some areas could still observe tropical-storm-force winds in gusts associated with heavy squalls.

Additional weakening is forecast, and Cindy will degenerate into a remnant low tomorrow. Thereafter, the cyclone should become absorbed into a frontal zone over the eastern United States.

Cindy is moving toward the north at 11 knots. The cyclone should gradually turn toward the northeast and east-northeast as it becomes embedded within the prevailing mid-level westerly flow over the next couple of days.

Although Cindy is a tropical depression, it will continue to produce heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Gulf Coast and the southeastern and eastern United States, along with the potential for life-threatening flash flooding in some locations.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts up to 8 inches over extreme eastern Texas, Louisiana, and southern and eastern Arkansas through Friday morning. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over southern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, and extreme western Florida Panhandle are expected through Friday morning. This may bring storm total rainfall in excess of 15 inches in some isolated locations. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas.

Heavy rainfall will expand across the Tennessee and Ohio valleys today and across the central Appalachians Friday into Saturday. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are expected through Friday morning.

WIND: Gusts of tropical storm force in a few squalls are still possible mainly to the east of the depression.

STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is still possible along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast in areas of strong onshore winds.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight from the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valley regions to the central Gulf Coast.

 

Atlantic Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 03L (Cindy)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

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