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Aug
16
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 14W (Banyan) is located about 981 NM north of Wake Island

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards,3-hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS Model for Typhoon 14W (Banyan)

Tropical Cyclone 14W (Banyan) has peaked in strength, and will continue winding down…as it remains away from land in the western Pacific

Here’s a satellite image of this system…along with what the computer models are showing

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports that satellite imagery shows the compact central convection has re-surged, slightly deepened, and momentarily regained a pinhole eye…even as it continues to be sheared northeastward of the low level circulation center.

Environmental analysis indicates an increasingly unfavorable environment, with moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, and cooling sea surface temperatures…however poleward outflow has increased, enough to offset the previous weakening trend.

Typhoon 14W is forecast to continue to accelerate northeastward. Increasing wind shear combined with cooler sea surface temperatures along the track…will gradually erode the system.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #23 were 65 knots with gusts of 80 knots

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 3-hour precipitation accumulations…with a tropical disturbance that has a low chance of developing

Meanwhile, in the eastern Pacific, there’s a single tropical disturbance today

1.) A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.

Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves westward at 10 mph during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 3-hour precipitation accumulations…and a tropical disturbance with medium chances of developing within 2-days

Finally, in the central Pacific, there’s a tropical disturbance…which currently has a medium chance of developing

This area of disturbed weather is being referred to as Invest 91C, here’s a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

1.) Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure about 800 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii remain disorganized early this morning.

Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development of this system during the next few days as it moves slowly toward the northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high…80 percent

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 14W (Banyan)

JTWC textual forecast advisory
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Aug
16
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 08L (Gert) is located about 355 miles north of Bermuda

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 3-hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions and wind radii, and TAOS Model for Hurricane Gert

Hurricane Gert is bringing swells to parts of the U.S. east coast…although remains away from land

Here’s a current satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this hurricane

A stronger Hurricane Gert continued on a path away from the U.S and out to sea on Wednesday.

While remaining several hundred miles off the East Coast, Hurricane Gert has still generated swells that will continue to affect areas from the Mid-Atlantic coast to southeast New England and coastal Maine through Wednesday.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), GOES visible imagery has shown Gert’s eye coming and going over the past several hours. Gert has another 18-24 hours before it reaches significantly colder waters north of the Gulf Stream, so the cyclone still has the opportunity for a little more strengthening later today and this evening. Southwesterly wind shear is expected to begin increasing tonight, and the higher shear and colder water should cause a steady weakening trend to begin on Thursday.

The global model fields indicate that Gert should be fully extratropical, embedded in a frontal zone, within 48 hours. There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding when Gert will be absorbed by another larger extratropical cyclone, but most of the guidance tends to agree that it should be absorbed by day 5 over the north Atlantic. Gert’s forward speed continues to increase.

Gert is embedded in mid-latitude westerly flow between a mid-level high centered east of Bermuda and a large cut-off low over eastern Canada, and this pattern should force the cyclone on a fast northeastward pace over the north Atlantic at least for the next 72 hours. A slower motion is forecast by day 4 once post-tropical Gert interacts with the large cut-off low moving east of Atlantic Canada.

The post-tropical portion of the track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts incorporate guidance from NOAA’s Ocean Prediction Center. Swells from Gert are affecting portions of the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States, and are expected to spread northward to New England and Atlantic Canada during the next day or two. These swells are likely to produce dangerous surf and rip current conditions.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 

SURF: Swells generated by Gert will spread northward along the east coast of the United States from Virginia northward to New England and Atlantic Canada during the next day or two. Swells are also expected to continue to affect Bermuda through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 3-hour precipitation accumulations…and three tropical disturbances with low chances of developing

Meanwhile, elsewhere in the Atlantic, the NHC is highlighting three tropical disturbances in the tropical Atlantic

1.) A low pressure system located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.

This system is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph, and it is expected to cross into the Caribbean Sea on Friday.

Upper-level winds are forecast to become a little more conducive for development during the next several days, and interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
*
Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

2.) A second area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is also producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days before upper-level winds become less conducive over the weekend.

This system is expected to move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
*
Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

3.) Finally, a tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this wave while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
*
Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

 

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical cyclone 08L  (Gert)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Aug
15
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 14W (Banyan) is located about 515 NM east-northeast of Minami Tori Shima, Japan

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards,3-hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, wind radii, and TAOS Model for Typhoon 14W (Banyan)

Tropical Cyclone 14W (Banyan) is peaking in strength, and will be winding down…as it remains away from land in the western Pacific

Here’s a satellite image of this system…along with what the computer models are showing

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports that satellite imagery shows a compact system with curved cloud bands beginning to weaken, as convective tops warmed slightly…and the ragged eye has also become could filled.

Upper level analysis indicates the system is in an area of moderate 15-20 knot wind shear, which is partially offset by strong equatorward outflow that is providing excellent ventilation to the central convection.

Typhoon 14W is expected to track east of northward and accelerates northeastward. Increasing wind shear will continue to gradually erode the system. In addition, after 12 hours…the typhoon will drift into an area of cooling sea surface temperatures.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #19 were 85 knots with gusts of 105 knots

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 3-hour precipitation accumulations…with three tropical disturbances that have a low chance of developing

Meanwhile, in the eastern Pacific, there are three potential tropical cyclones which could eventually spin up with time.

1.) An elongated area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, and development, if any, should be slow to occur while the system moves slowly westward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

2.) A westward-moving trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce limited showers and thunderstorms.

Environmental conditions are not forecast to support significant development of this system during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

3.) A tropical wave near the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a few showers and thunderstorms.

Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for development of this system while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 3-hour precipitation accumulations…and two tropical disturbances with low chances of developing

Finally, in the central Pacific, there’s two tropical disturbances…which both currently have a low chance of developing

1.) Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure, located slightly less than 900 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii remain disorganized this morning. Environmental conditions may become conducive for some gradual development of this system during the next few days as it moves slowly toward the northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium…50 percent

2.) Showers and thunderstorms have increased in coverage associated with a broad, nearly stationary, area of low pressure, located approximately 800 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for development over the next couple of days. The longer-term chances for development are not as favorable due to interaction with another area of low pressure nearby to the east.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low…20 percent

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Western North Pacific

Tropical cyclone 14W (Banyan)

JTWC textual forecast advisory
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Aug
15
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Atlantic Ocean / Caribbean Sea / Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 08L (Gert) is located about 420 miles west of Bermuda

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 3-hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions and wind radii, and TAOS Model for Tropical Storm Gert…and two tropical disturbances with low chances of developing

Hurricane Gert is bringing swells to parts of the U.S. east coast…as it turns northeast away from land

Here’s a current satellite image…and what the computer models are showing

Here’s a looping satellite image of this hurricane

According to climatology, the second hurricane forms by August 29th…so that the season is well ahead of schedule.

Hurricane Gert is about halfway between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast. The good news is that Hurricane Gert is no direct threat to either the United States or Bermuda as it turns around the west side of the Bermuda high-pressure system, accelerating northeast, and eventually getting caught up in the jet stream over the north Atlantic Ocean.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts. The hurricane is forecast to become a little stronger during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), northerly shear of about 20 knots has been inhibiting Gert. A pair of microwave passes around 0900 UTC showed that the mid-level center was displaced about 20 NM south-southeast of the low-level center. Since the time of the earlier microwave passes, outflow in the northwest quadrant has become re-established, suggesting that the shear may be lessening.

Environmental diagnostics indicate that the wind shear should continue to decrease for about the next 24 hours, which should allow for a brief window of intensification. The models all indicate that extratropical transition will begin sometime between 36 and 48 hours, while the hurricane crosses a strong sea surface temperature gradient, and the shear increases above 30 knots.

Gert is forecast to become fully extratropical about a day later. Gert has finally begun to round the western edge of the subtropical ridge, and should begin accelerating northeastward later today. The official forecast indicates that Gert will be absorbed by the extratropical low shortly after 96 hours.

Swells from Gert are expected to spread northward along the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States during the next few days. These swells are likely to produce dangerous surf and rip current conditions.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 

SURF: Swells generated by Gert will spread northward along the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward to Long Island during the next couple of days. Swells are also expected to affect Bermuda during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

>>> Meanwhile, elsewhere in the Atlantic, the NHC is highlighting three tropical disturbances in the more or less central Atlantic

1.) An elongated area of low pressure located more than a thousand miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, crossing into the Caribbean Sea on Friday.

Environmental conditions appear somewhat supportive of tropical cyclone formation over the next few days but should become less favorable once the system moves into the Caribbean Sea.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
*
Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

2.) A second area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is also producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

Environmental conditions could be conducive for some slow development of this system over the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
*
Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

3.) A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday. Conditions appear conducive for some development after that time while the wave moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
*
Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

 

Atlantic Ocean

Tropical cyclone 08L  (Gert)

NHC textual forecast advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

NOAA satellite image of the Atlantic

Caribbean Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

NOAA satellite image of the Caribbean Sea

Gulf of Mexico

There are no current tropical cyclones

Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

Aug
14
2017

Tropical Cyclone Activity Report – Pacific Ocean / Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone 14W (Banyan) is located about 402 NM north-northwest of Wake Island

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards,3-hour precipitation accumulations, Tropical Cyclone segments, positions, and wind radii for Typhoon 14W (Banyan)

Tropical Cyclone 14W (Banyan) will continue strengthen, reaching the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane…although remain away from land in the western Pacific

Here’s a satellite image of this system…along with what the computer models are showing

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center reports that satellite imagery shows a compact system with tightly curved cloud bands wrapping into a formative eye. Animated imagery indicates that a gradually improving upper level environment, with decreasing northerly wind shear, and a slight improvement in poleward outflow.

Typhoon 14W will continue tracking poleward through 36 hours, while upper level conditions are expected to significantly improve, leading to a period of re-intensification.

Beyond 36 hours, environmental conditions are expected to gradually degrade, with sea surface temperatures decreasing.

Maximum sustained winds as of the JTWC Warning #15 were 80 knots with gusts of 100 knots

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 3-hour precipitation accumulations…with two tropical disturbances that have a low chance of developing

Meanwhile, in the eastern Pacific, there are two potential tropical cyclones which could eventually spin up with time.

1.) A large area of disturbed weather has developed several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for some development of this system while it moves slowly westward later this week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent

2.) Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, are associated with a trough of low pressure.

Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive for development while this system moves slowly westward to west-northwestward during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent

PDC Disaster Alert, displaying PDC Active Hazards, 3-hour precipitation accumulations…with a tropical disturbance that has a low chance of developing

Finally, in the central Pacific, there’s a tropical disturbance…which currently has a low chance of developing

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure, located around 900 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii remain disorganized.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual organization through the week as it moves slowly west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

 

Eastern North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

Central North Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

South Pacific

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

South Indian Ocean

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

North Arabian Sea

There are no current tropical cyclones

Satellite image of this area

 

For real-time information on current disasters download PDC’s free Disaster Alert mobile app available for your iOS or Android devices today! Also be sure to monitor PDC on Twitter, Facebook, and by accessing the web-accessible Disaster Alert from your computer, phone, or tablet.

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